Clinton leading Trump in Long Island Polls

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by Joshua Pietzold and Giovanni Ortiz

       This Halloween, Daniel Saba wore an arrangement of Hillary Clinton-endorsed bracelets on his wrist, varying in color between blue and white and branded with her campaign slogan, “I’m With Her”. But this was no Halloween costume. He’s bought a variety of campaign merchandise to support Clinton ever since she won the Democratic nomination, from bumper stickers to t-shirts. He wears them almost daily.

     While other people may not be buying or wearing Clinton’s merchandise, Saba’s not the only person on Long Island who’s “with her”.

        Support for Clinton on Long Island has gone from 41 percent in September to 46 percent, while support for Trump has fallen five points to 35 percent, according to a poll conducted by Hofstra and News12 released on October 21.

     “The last few weeks have been particularly troublesome for Donald Trump, which is probably responsible for the movement captured in the poll,” Craig Burnett, assistant professor of political science at Hofstra University, said.

      Trump’s recent scandals – which include his treatment of women and the issue of concession if he loses – have definitely taken their toll on his campaign.

     Another poll by News12 released October 26 shows that Clinton leads Trump by 3 points on the issue of trust.

     “I don’t like him at all. So, If there has to be one, I’d go with Hillary. But I’m still scared for either one of them. Trump is a disaster. He doesn’t even know the difference between 9-11 and 7-11. So if he can’t get that right, I don’t know what he can get right with the United States as a whole,” Philana Aiken, a Lake Grove resident, said.

     Some are so dissatisfied with the election season as a whole that they won’t be voting.

     “I just don’t think either of them are good enough, so it’s why I don’t vote. It’s just not worth it,” Ezra Apaza, another Lake Grove resident, said.

      Nationally, Clinton has a 6-point lead over Trump  — 47 percent to Trump’s 41 percent. When looking at the data for the past Saturday and Sunday only, her lead remains the same even after the FBI reopened the email investigation, according to NBC News’ SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll.

        “I see Hillary Clinton winning the election, unless the recent letter from FBI Director James Comey has an outsized impact,” Burnett said.  ‘It seems unlikely, but 2016 has been an election that has failed to follow expectations.”

      Suffolk and Nassau counties have voted democrat since 1996. Although sometimes democrats have won only by close margins, New York as a whole has not elected a Republican president since 1988, according to the New York Times.  

     The New York Times’ election predictor The Upshot, which collects data from polls nationwide, has Clinton standing with an 89 percent chance of winning the election.

   “I think that polls reflect general enthusiasm from the people the survey reaches out to,” Andrew Gelman, professor of statistics and political science at Columbia University, said. “When something breaks in the news about a candidate, it’ll affect the polls, which can change everyday.”

     As new polls are released daily up to election day with varying results, it’s in the hands of the voters who will be the next President of the United States. For now though, the data points to Clinton.